Europe’s Energy Metals Crisis: Between Policy Ambition and Market Reality

Europe faces an unprecedented raw materials crisis that policy targets systematically underestimate. By 2030, demand for energy metals is expected to explode. Lithium demand will increase five-fold. Cobalt will rise nine-fold. Nickel, manganese, and graphite will need twelve to fifteen times current supply levels. Yet Europe produces zero rare earth elements, controls less than one per cent of global lithium output, and depends on a single country (China) for all rare earth processing and 90 per cent of permanent magnets. In February 2026, the European Court of Auditors warned directly: under current plans, Europe's 2030 critical raw materials targets "appear out of reach." Many strategically designated projects, the Court found, will struggle to secure supply by 2030.